Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 7.6 | 15% | 63 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 7.3 | 15.7% | 66 | 0.49% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 8.3 | 17.8% | 75 | 0.36% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 6.3 | 14.5% | 61 | 0.45% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 5.9 | 14.3% | 60 | 0.57% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 4.0 | 10% | 42 | 0.33% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 4.4 | 9% | 38 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 5 | 1.4 | 3.8% | 16 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 62 | 45.1 | 100% | 421 | 0.4% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | 15246 | 61780 | 516 | 126 | 468 |
| Oct 21 | 15316 | 61884 | 517 | 126 | 538 |
| Oct 22 | 15364 | 61992 | 519 | 126 | 507 |
| Oct 23 | 15409 | 62059 | 519 | 126 | 502 |
| Oct 24 | 15453 | 62143 | 520 | 126 | 482 |
| Oct 25 | 15453 | 62184 | 520 | 126 | 407 |
| Oct 26 | 15515 | 62227 | 524 | 127 | 421 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | 10365 | 36226 | 437 | 112 | 309 |
| Oct 21 | 10398 | 36263 | 438 | 113 | 318 |
| Oct 22 | 10416 | 36321 | 438 | 113 | 281 |
| Oct 23 | 10454 | 36350 | 439 | 113 | 285 |
| Oct 24 | 10479 | 36393 | 442 | 113 | 310 |
| Oct 25 | 10486 | 36425 | 443 | 113 | 240 |
| Oct 26 | 10512 | 36462 | 443 | 113 | 230 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.6 | 7.8% | 18 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 3.0 | 12.6% | 29 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.1 | 10.9% | 25 | 0.35% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 4.3 | 18.7% | 43 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.0 | 16.5% | 38 | 0.49% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 3.1 | 14.3% | 33 | 0.34% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.4 | 13.5% | 31 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.3 | 5.7% | 13 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 26 | 22.9 | 100% | 230 | 0.36% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | 7945 | 24067 | 382 | 91 | 209 |
| Oct 21 | 7975 | 24101 | 384 | 91 | 220 |
| Oct 22 | 8010 | 24144 | 387 | 91 | 245 |
| Oct 23 | 8037 | 24182 | 389 | 91 | 240 |
| Oct 24 | 8047 | 24215 | 389 | 91 | 250 |
| Oct 25 | 8056 | 24228 | 389 | 91 | 207 |
| Oct 26 | 8064 | 24252 | 389 | 93 | 194 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.9 | 9.3% | 18 | 0.33% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 3.0 | 14.9% | 29 | 0.53% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.4 | 8.2% | 16 | 0.35% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 2.3 | 10.8% | 21 | 0.39% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 4.4 | 18% | 35 | 0.7% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.6 | 11.3% | 22 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.3 | 11.9% | 23 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.7 | 15.5% | 30 | 0.47% |
| All ages | 8 | 21.6 | 100% | 194 | 0.43% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | 16051 | 70872 | 645 | 107 | 380 |
| Oct 21 | 16092 | 70998 | 646 | 108 | 389 |
| Oct 22 | 16130 | 71169 | 648 | 108 | 379 |
| Oct 23 | 16163 | 71272 | 648 | 109 | 372 |
| Oct 24 | 16200 | 71335 | 648 | 109 | 409 |
| Oct 25 | 16207 | 71397 | 648 | 109 | 335 |
| Oct 26 | 16251 | 71522 | 651 | 109 | 344 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 5.6 | 14.8% | 51 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 6.6 | 17.2% | 59 | 0.36% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 5.3 | 13.7% | 47 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 6.3 | 15.4% | 53 | 0.39% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 4.9 | 13.7% | 47 | 0.35% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 2.9 | 7.3% | 25 | 0.18% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.6 | 8.7% | 30 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.7 | 9.3% | 32 | 0.25% |
| All ages | 44 | 37.7 | 100% | 344 | 0.29% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | 55483 | 419840 | 1921 | 345 | 1065 |
| Oct 21 | 55597 | 420588 | 1907 | 345 | 1127 |
| Oct 22 | 55687 | 421472 | 1916 | 345 | 988 |
| Oct 23 | 55793 | 422135 | 1917 | 346 | 976 |
| Oct 24 | 55833 | 422555 | 1918 | 346 | 1016 |
| Oct 25 | 55902 | 422888 | 1920 | 346 | 814 |
| Oct 26 | 56023 | 423257 | 1918 | 346 | 833 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 18 | 14.6 | 15.4% | 128 | 0.21% |
| 10-19 | 12 | 7.9 | 10.7% | 89 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 15.6 | 17.2% | 143 | 0.14% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 15.6 | 17.3% | 144 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 20 | 12.9 | 14.3% | 119 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 20 | 10.1 | 11.2% | 93 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 6.1 | 7.3% | 61 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 7 | 4.6 | 6.7% | 56 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 121 | 87.3 | 100% | 833 | 0.15% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | 772918 | 3486673 | 41441 | 8293 | 20110 |
| Oct 21 | 775142 | 3494107 | 41524 | 8312 | 21088 |
| Oct 22 | 777244 | 3501652 | 41659 | 8342 | 20389 |
| Oct 23 | 779738 | 3507762 | 41801 | 8372 | 20460 |
| Oct 24 | 780650 | 3512246 | 41844 | 8375 | 18737 |
| Oct 25 | 781483 | 3515208 | 41891 | 8378 | 17143 |
| Oct 26 | 784087 | 3519129 | 42041 | 8420 | 17521 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 326 | 243.7 | 12.6% | 2201 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 379 | 322.0 | 17.1% | 3004 | 0.4% |
| 20-29 | 296 | 224.3 | 11.9% | 2083 | 0.28% |
| 30-39 | 396 | 292.7 | 15.3% | 2689 | 0.36% |
| 40-49 | 318 | 248.0 | 13.2% | 2307 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | 349 | 221.7 | 11.7% | 2049 | 0.25% |
| 60-69 | 290 | 184.0 | 9.6% | 1683 | 0.22% |
| 70+ | 250 | 160.6 | 8.6% | 1505 | 0.23% |
| All ages | 2604 | 1897.0 | 100% | 17521 | 0.3% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-11-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 8108"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges